We take a brief look at two interesting Treasury Yield curves today. The first Yield Curve takes a snapshot view of the yield curves at the end of Q1 2011 and Q1 2012. What is very noticeable is the fact that the overall yields for the end of Q1 2012 is significantly lower than a … Continue reading The Return of Risk?
Today’s brief analysis of US Treasury Yield curves and the Debt profiles of both the USA and Italy highlights the enduring question in the title of this post. The first graphic highlights one important issue. We chose 2 August 2011 versus 17 February 2012 as key dates to compare the US Treasury Yield curve. If … Continue reading Where will all the new money come from?
Are the European and more specifically the Euro-zone problems purely a matter of cultural differences, engrained in generations of ‘Nation Staters’ or something deeper in each nation-people’s psychology? It cannot purely be a difference of political ideology between the leaders and individual nations of Europe that has lead us to the brink of the … Continue reading A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?
We decided to summarise our learning from 2011 into two brief thoughts: The pains and strains of the economic sovereign debt melt-down in 2011, should stand us in good stead to deal with even more debt and sovereign strain in 2012, as More and Bigger Europe continue to miss the point; this being … Continue reading Our Lessons from 2011
We pick up from the introductory article by expanding on the issue of MORE Europe, which we did not cover in enough depth. More Europe It is without a shadow of doubt that belonging to an enlarged common market has huge beneficial advantages to all its participants. However, the question of the Cost / Benefit … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…
Irrespective of how the twists and turns of the Greek political system plays out over the next few days and weeks, we believe that the Big EU (Eurozone more specifically) players and their leaders only have themselves to blame for Greece's seemingly petulant behaviour. If at the fundamental level we cannot understand that ANY form … Continue reading The Big Design: Moral Hazard, and the EU
Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…
A reminder of what we wrote on 22 September 2011 about Quantitative Easing: “QE – Our take on the Bell Curve Effect” (Please click on the link for the full article). Expect Mervin King to continue writing letters to the Chancellor to explain the Inflation target gap and the worsening economic landscape. It begs … Continue reading Quantitative Easing – Here we go again
Making sense of the distribution and lag effects Let us explain the problem or rather challenge of choosing between Quantitative Easing (QE) and an Interest Rate reduction to stimulate economic activity, with reference to the Bell Curve diagramme above: There are two major factors at play here: Distribution Time With a bout of QE, the effect … Continue reading QE – Our take on the Bell Curve effect
The real (inflation adjusted) 30 Year T-Bill rates have since the beginning of the year averaged 1.72% (simple averaging). Since the beginning of September 2011 the average real rate has dipped to below 1.00% to 0.99%. (Our measurement). Does this mean that the flight to other asset classes is now in full-swing … Continue reading The Flight – Keeping an eye on the real 30 Year Treasury Yield Rates
For today's brief analysis of the US Treasuries (T-Bill) Yield rates, we constructed the chart and table below utilising data from the US Treasury official site. We took a point in time being mid August for 5 consecutive years from 2006 through to 2011 and compared the 1-month through to 30 Year T-Bill Yield Curves. As can … Continue reading US Treasuries – A steady erosion in confidence?
Today’s brief commentary piece tracks the US Treasury Yield curve of 5 August 2011 (before the Standard & Poor’s downgrade announcement) and the closing rate on 10 August 2011. As can be observed, across the board, the T-Bill yields of 10 August are lower than on 5 August 2011. It begs the question: Is a ratings … Continue reading US Treasuries – 4 trading days on and rates look rosy?
So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?
Some say that in life timing is everything... And so too it is with economics. We don’t yet have a fully developed and ‘mature’ [in terms of life-cycle] grasp of the impact of timing with leads and lags in the economy in general. Yes, we have very sophisticated and advance models, analytics, knowledge management, quantitative … Continue reading A sigh of relief?
In the previous article we posted, mention was made of the (0.72)% [negative 0.72%] real return US Treasury investors can currently expect on 5 Year Treasury Bills. The Nominal (quoted) Yield Curves and Real (Inflation adjusted) Yield Curves for two specific points in time, namely Friday 29 July 2011 and 30 July 2006 are listed below. Yield … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves #2 – Do you factor inflation into the deal?
As a general introduction today we will look at two US Treasury Yield curves. The first Yield curve in the Curve graphic 1 below is the 3 Month bills compared to the 10 Year bills over the last 5 years. Yield Curve 1 In this table it is clear that the current 10 Year … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves – Are the markets really that bothered?
We will interrupt our series of articles on ‘The Trouble with Innovation’ and begin to weave in between those conversations, a more fundamental argument to help enlighten the debate and understanding around the differences between ‘Monetary Economics’ and ‘Real Economics’. The basic themes of this series of articles will be around growth and shrinking in … Continue reading The Great Money Deception – Part I