...on human nature and the market, including a call for restraint on mindless regulation...
Today we very briefly focus on the dynamics we have observed in the US Treasury Yield Curve between two critical dates: 1. The Yield Curve at 30 September 2013 - The day before the US government shutdown officially began 2. Friday 11 October 2013, exactly 11 days into the White House, Congress and Senate stand-off … Continue reading US Treasury Yield Curve – The Shutdown Analysis (Part 1)
After the conclusion to what some pundits called a ‘tumultuous week’ for Europe (week ending 11 May 2012), we still find ourselves asking some important questions. We all know that the question is not around what growth, where growth or why growth. The fundamental question in Europe now is: How Growth? For way too long … Continue reading Some Questions for Europe
With apologies to The Smiths; the original version of the song Panic’s lyrics reads something like this: “Panic on the streets of London / Panic on the streets of Birmingham / I wonder to myself / Could life ever be sane again?” Or is this the beginning of what we will call ‘Austerity Anarchy’? As … Continue reading Panic in the Cars of Britain?
In yesterday’s article, “Where will all the new money come from?” we concluded the brief analysis with the Sovereign Debt Maturity profiles (otherwise known as the Debt Structure) of both the USA and Italy, noting how similar the two profiles looked at first glance. Digging a bit deeper today, we would like to compare those … Continue reading The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1
Today’s brief analysis of US Treasury Yield curves and the Debt profiles of both the USA and Italy highlights the enduring question in the title of this post. The first graphic highlights one important issue. We chose 2 August 2011 versus 17 February 2012 as key dates to compare the US Treasury Yield curve. If … Continue reading Where will all the new money come from?
Are the European and more specifically the Euro-zone problems purely a matter of cultural differences, engrained in generations of ‘Nation Staters’ or something deeper in each nation-people’s psychology? It cannot purely be a difference of political ideology between the leaders and individual nations of Europe that has lead us to the brink of the … Continue reading A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?
It is with a little amusement that we scanned through the Economic headlines today, following Standard & Poor’s decision to finally downgrade France’s and other Eurozone nation’s Sovereign Debt rating. France lost its prestigious triple A (AAA) grade to AA+. Sarkozy and French anger? Indeed! Off course the irony is that an “outsider market agency” … Continue reading Irony and Downgrade Anger
We decided to summarise our learning from 2011 into two brief thoughts: The pains and strains of the economic sovereign debt melt-down in 2011, should stand us in good stead to deal with even more debt and sovereign strain in 2012, as More and Bigger Europe continue to miss the point; this being … Continue reading Our Lessons from 2011
We pick up from the introductory article by expanding on the issue of MORE Europe, which we did not cover in enough depth. More Europe It is without a shadow of doubt that belonging to an enlarged common market has huge beneficial advantages to all its participants. However, the question of the Cost / Benefit … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…
On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?
Peak Debt is in essence the point at which a sovereign nation reaches its maximum indebtedness and cannot afford to service the debt anymore, thus prompting a reduction in the debt (principal). So, Europe proved yesterday with the uplift of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) from its current base of €440bn to €1tr (boosting … Continue reading Peak Debt – What Peak Debt?
Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…
A reminder of what we wrote on 22 September 2011 about Quantitative Easing: “QE – Our take on the Bell Curve Effect” (Please click on the link for the full article). Expect Mervin King to continue writing letters to the Chancellor to explain the Inflation target gap and the worsening economic landscape. It begs … Continue reading Quantitative Easing – Here we go again
As if last week’s (week ending 23 September 2011) turbulence on the world’s stock markets wasn’t enough of an emotional rollercoaster for millions of market participant’s, we will offer only one bit of reflection this morning on the market conditions. Remember, the markets live, breath and die by the age old human conditions (seven deadly … Continue reading The Seven Deadly Sins of the Market
The real (inflation adjusted) 30 Year T-Bill rates have since the beginning of the year averaged 1.72% (simple averaging). Since the beginning of September 2011 the average real rate has dipped to below 1.00% to 0.99%. (Our measurement). Does this mean that the flight to other asset classes is now in full-swing … Continue reading The Flight – Keeping an eye on the real 30 Year Treasury Yield Rates
In our previous analysis piece on the Erosion of Confidence in the Capital Market, we discussed the downward trend in US T-Bill since 2006. In today’s brief analysis piece we have expanded the time horizon to the last 10 years from the beginning of 2001 to the end of the second quarter in 2011 (being … Continue reading US Treasuries – Expanding the confidence time horizon
For today's brief analysis of the US Treasuries (T-Bill) Yield rates, we constructed the chart and table below utilising data from the US Treasury official site. We took a point in time being mid August for 5 consecutive years from 2006 through to 2011 and compared the 1-month through to 30 Year T-Bill Yield Curves. As can … Continue reading US Treasuries – A steady erosion in confidence?
Today’s brief commentary piece tracks the US Treasury Yield curve of 5 August 2011 (before the Standard & Poor’s downgrade announcement) and the closing rate on 10 August 2011. As can be observed, across the board, the T-Bill yields of 10 August are lower than on 5 August 2011. It begs the question: Is a ratings … Continue reading US Treasuries – 4 trading days on and rates look rosy?
So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?