On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?
Peak Debt is in essence the point at which a sovereign nation reaches its maximum indebtedness and cannot afford to service the debt anymore, thus prompting a reduction in the debt (principal). So, Europe proved yesterday with the uplift of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) from its current base of €440bn to €1tr (boosting … Continue reading Peak Debt – What Peak Debt?
Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…
A reminder of what we wrote on 22 September 2011 about Quantitative Easing: “QE – Our take on the Bell Curve Effect” (Please click on the link for the full article). Expect Mervin King to continue writing letters to the Chancellor to explain the Inflation target gap and the worsening economic landscape. It begs … Continue reading Quantitative Easing – Here we go again
It is political party conference season in the UK. The last of the major three party’s conferences kicked-off yesterday, namely the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester. However, we want to focus on a little snippet from last week’s Labour Party conference. In the Labour Party leader’s (Ed Miliband) speech, he attacked ‘neoliberalism’, which in itself … Continue reading ‘Biological’ Language
As if last week’s (week ending 23 September 2011) turbulence on the world’s stock markets wasn’t enough of an emotional rollercoaster for millions of market participant’s, we will offer only one bit of reflection this morning on the market conditions. Remember, the markets live, breath and die by the age old human conditions (seven deadly … Continue reading The Seven Deadly Sins of the Market
The inspiration for today’s thought piece is a small and medium sized enterprise (SME) and now our new definition namely MELE (Medium Enterprise to Large Enterprise) decision making styles and abilities. Our enquiry runs along the lines of discussions and conversations we have observed in the Interim and Gap Management market. If decision-making and more … Continue reading The behavioural impacts of Just in Time (JIT) in the Interim & Gap Management market
We thought it about time to write an opinion piece on the dynamics (economics) around the Interim Management market, delivered from a UK perspective. This is a purely thought piece and opinion, not support by empirical research, but grounded in economic theory and an observation of the 'state of the current market'. The inspiration for … Continue reading The economics of Gap (Interim) or Freelance Management
Making sense of the distribution and lag effects Let us explain the problem or rather challenge of choosing between Quantitative Easing (QE) and an Interest Rate reduction to stimulate economic activity, with reference to the Bell Curve diagramme above: There are two major factors at play here: Distribution Time With a bout of QE, the effect … Continue reading QE – Our take on the Bell Curve effect
Originally published 4 October 2009: Information Asymmetry is what drives the market. We alluded to this in an earlier blog posting (see Market Responsibility, Saturday, 18 October 2008). Yet we still hear the socialist agenda mention regularly that if it wasn’t for the recent government interventions to ‘save the market’, the market would have collapsed. … Continue reading The Ice Age is Cometh
Yesterday the Independent Commission on Banking (Vickers Commission) published its long anticipated, yet low in surprises report on Banking Reform in the UK. See: Rather than rehash the analysis already performed, we only have two items to add at this stage: Get your calculators out, or at least keep the Quants busy, because unravelling and … Continue reading Get your calculators out
Ever since the Great Depression and JMK’s ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)', have we had more intense government interference and hence taxation in most advanced economies. Thank you JMK. But seriously, how much is too much? There must be value in controlling fiscal policy, monetary policy and (social) employment policy, but is … Continue reading I blame John Maynard Keynes (JMK)
The real (inflation adjusted) 30 Year T-Bill rates have since the beginning of the year averaged 1.72% (simple averaging). Since the beginning of September 2011 the average real rate has dipped to below 1.00% to 0.99%. (Our measurement). Does this mean that the flight to other asset classes is now in full-swing … Continue reading The Flight – Keeping an eye on the real 30 Year Treasury Yield Rates
We were reminded today of a blog post we made on 21 October 2009 we made regarding the Credit Crisis of 2008 - 2009, at the time. Some of the lessons learnt and discussed there are still relevant today, especially our comment regarding the fact that the Credit Quake would have 'after shocks' for a … Continue reading The Credit Quake of 2008 – 2009 (Revisited)
...continuing our conversation in the Economics of Taxation series (part 2) A European Generation ‘E’ enquiry – (‘E’ for employment) Referring to our previous article entitled ‘The Economics of Taxation’, today we elaborate and flesh out the basic ideas around taxation. The basic idea is that any form of taxation becomes a drain on … Continue reading Crafting the Cynical Generation?
In our previous analysis piece on the Erosion of Confidence in the Capital Market, we discussed the downward trend in US T-Bill since 2006. In today’s brief analysis piece we have expanded the time horizon to the last 10 years from the beginning of 2001 to the end of the second quarter in 2011 (being … Continue reading US Treasuries – Expanding the confidence time horizon
Today’s short opinion piece revolves around the recent rail fare increases announced in the UK. It strikes us as a very cynical way of rewarding behaviour and policies implemented by previous governments and parliaments to now go and increase the ‘tax’ on rail commuters when the switching policy from road to rail has meant that … Continue reading A cynical swipe at the ‘Consumer end’ of the money (value) chain
For today's brief analysis of the US Treasuries (T-Bill) Yield rates, we constructed the chart and table below utilising data from the US Treasury official site. We took a point in time being mid August for 5 consecutive years from 2006 through to 2011 and compared the 1-month through to 30 Year T-Bill Yield Curves. As can … Continue reading US Treasuries – A steady erosion in confidence?
Today’s brief commentary piece tracks the US Treasury Yield curve of 5 August 2011 (before the Standard & Poor’s downgrade announcement) and the closing rate on 10 August 2011. As can be observed, across the board, the T-Bill yields of 10 August are lower than on 5 August 2011. It begs the question: Is a ratings … Continue reading US Treasuries – 4 trading days on and rates look rosy?
So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?