Part 2 - Revelations In part 1 of this article we focused on the economic cycles and the underlying drivers for future Moral Hazard risks. In today's edition we will dwell a little on the revelations 2014 brought about in a series of disclosures and financial regulatory deals concluded. As Tony Robinson put is so eloquently … Continue reading Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 2
After the conclusion to what some pundits called a ‘tumultuous week’ for Europe (week ending 11 May 2012), we still find ourselves asking some important questions. We all know that the question is not around what growth, where growth or why growth. The fundamental question in Europe now is: How Growth? For way too long … Continue reading Some Questions for Europe
Trust, due diligence and an investor's duty to assess their own risk appetite and profile should be the ingredients for Trust...here we highlight the basics of Trust
Today’s brief analysis of US Treasury Yield curves and the Debt profiles of both the USA and Italy highlights the enduring question in the title of this post. The first graphic highlights one important issue. We chose 2 August 2011 versus 17 February 2012 as key dates to compare the US Treasury Yield curve. If … Continue reading Where will all the new money come from?
It is with a little amusement that we scanned through the Economic headlines today, following Standard & Poor’s decision to finally downgrade France’s and other Eurozone nation’s Sovereign Debt rating. France lost its prestigious triple A (AAA) grade to AA+. Sarkozy and French anger? Indeed! Off course the irony is that an “outsider market agency” … Continue reading Irony and Downgrade Anger
We decided to summarise our learning from 2011 into two brief thoughts: The pains and strains of the economic sovereign debt melt-down in 2011, should stand us in good stead to deal with even more debt and sovereign strain in 2012, as More and Bigger Europe continue to miss the point; this being … Continue reading Our Lessons from 2011
Yes, it will be more bureaucracy and bigger financial problems down the line... We pick up our analysis this week in the dusky glint of the aftermath of the (latest) EU Leader summit to put together a rescue package for the Euro. More bureaucracy? The inspiration for this comes for the ‘people pulling the wagon … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe…Is that what we really want?
On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?
Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…
A reminder of what we wrote on 22 September 2011 about Quantitative Easing: “QE – Our take on the Bell Curve Effect” (Please click on the link for the full article). Expect Mervin King to continue writing letters to the Chancellor to explain the Inflation target gap and the worsening economic landscape. It begs … Continue reading Quantitative Easing – Here we go again
Yesterday the Independent Commission on Banking (Vickers Commission) published its long anticipated, yet low in surprises report on Banking Reform in the UK. See: Rather than rehash the analysis already performed, we only have two items to add at this stage: Get your calculators out, or at least keep the Quants busy, because unravelling and … Continue reading Get your calculators out
So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?
In the previous article we posted, mention was made of the (0.72)% [negative 0.72%] real return US Treasury investors can currently expect on 5 Year Treasury Bills. The Nominal (quoted) Yield Curves and Real (Inflation adjusted) Yield Curves for two specific points in time, namely Friday 29 July 2011 and 30 July 2006 are listed below. Yield … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves #2 – Do you factor inflation into the deal?
Never resist the temptation to start a discussion with a pun. In our previous article we highlighted the ‘battle royal’ on Capitol Hill to get a proposal agreed to address the possibility of a US Treasury default, whether actual or technical on or after 2 August 2011. So the Republicans could not muster together enough … Continue reading A Storm in a ‘Tea’ cup
Risk has as one of its essential elements TRUST as a foundation. Trust on the other hand has many other factors that interplay and interact on it. Markets are created when there are needs that are not immediately met from you local environment and therefore scarcity exists. Market participants step in to fill this 'needs' … Continue reading Risk Management Ideas
Conspiracy theories! Today we express an opinion on the phenomenon of ‘governmental’ economic landscape shaping. Interference whether actively pursued or via involuntary actions promotes our heightened sense of concern by the effects that the aggregation of supply and therefore the encouragement, either directly or indirectly of oligopolistic and monopolistic market structures, is having on the … Continue reading An Aggregated Challenge
We link today’s article to one of our main themes on our home page, namely the ‘Battle against the Status Quo’, or as per the title of this posting, ‘The Morass of Mediocrity’. The underlying intent and theme is that of competition and competitive behaviours and the difference between rules based and principles based … Continue reading The Morass of Mediocrity
Commentary on the new powers and tools of the Bank of England as announced by George Osborne during his first Mansion House address
Competition has to be guided, controlled and focussed. How do we manage this process and in addition attract talent to sustain organisations deep into the 21st Century?
If ‘the Law’ is the codification of cultural norms and practices, does the Law then not inform culture? Policy, social malice and engineering of social outcomes bend these laws into legislative blunt instruments designed to enforce cultural behavioural changes on a grand scale, trouncing the common law of good judgment, neighbourly relations and common sense … Continue reading Does Law inform or enforce culture?