Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…

Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe.

Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future?

We believe that it might be in the Euro’s short-term best interest to look for a more flexible, yet fragmented modular approach. However, the capital markets might not appreciate the continuous uncertainty and political wrangling whilst we keep on looking for a ‘best fit’ modular solution and what that might entail…

theMarketSoul (c)2011

In the Cloud, Structure is everything!

We have been having several conversations with colleagues and practitioners in both the Enterprise Strategy and Architecture space around both Cloud Computing and the Integrated Service IT delivery space.

Our brief conclusion is that Organisational Structure is everything.

We believe that you cannot effectively move IT Service delivery into the ‘Cloud’ and / or integrate some of the hybrid Cloud solutions and other architecture requirements, without fundamentally adjusting / realigning your organisational structure to fit the new model or modus operandi.

Therefore, the first item on the IT Change Management agenda should be a fundamental rethink and adjustment of Structure.

What usually happens is that once IT Services gets delivered into divisionalised organisations, the service quality and cost gets fragmented and ‘scope drag’ and loss of focus and control occurs.

This makes us conclude that maybe the same approach utilised in Natural Gas extraction, namely ‘Fraking’ should be utilised in IT Service delivery, in the absence of Organisational Structure change:

Go in deep and then cut across the silos in order to get to the core solution (service) delivery, because in the absence of structural service alignment, the only other option is to be as scientific and innovative as you possibly can.

theMarketSoul ©2011

The Seven Deadly Sins of the Market

As if last week’s (week ending 23 September 2011) turbulence on the world’s stock markets wasn’t enough of an emotional rollercoaster for millions of market participant’s, we will offer only one bit of reflection this morning on the market conditions.

Remember, the markets live, breath and die by the age old human conditions (seven deadly sins) of:

  • Greed / Avarice (Avaritia)
  • Envy (invidia)
  • Gluttony (gula)
  • Sloth (acedia)
  • Wrath (ira)
  • Pride (superbia)
  • Lust (luxuria

Therefore, the markets are Harsh, as we have written about before, however markets are still the most open, free and fair way to allocate resources, as we are reaching out to establish with our ‘The Market eQuation’, investigation.

All this activity we hope and trust will lead to a new understanding of the market which we will call:

Unbounded Market Rationality

theMarketSoul ©2011

The Ice Age is Cometh

Originally published 4 October 2009:

Information Asymmetry is what drives the market. We alluded to this in an earlier blog posting (see Market Responsibility, Saturday, 18 October 2008). Yet we still hear the socialist agenda mention regularly that if it wasn’t for the recent government interventions to ‘save the market’, the market would have collapsed. We are sorry, but we just don’t buy this. Yes it is true that individual institutions in the market would have failed, but as a mechanism, the market would have wobbled and other participants would have picked up the distressed bits and pieces and carried on.

True, there was a crisis of liquidity in the system, with severe knock on effects, but as a mechanism for allocating resources, effort and reward, we still believe the market would have survived, with or without the ‘nuclear’ option intervention we saw. The moral of this tale is that unfortunately the socialist elite now believe and make the rest of the market believe that they hold the moral high ground and can dictate the agenda for the next several years. Oh well and so the pendulum swings…

Which was entirely a side track to the real intention behind this posting.

‘The Ice Age is Cometh’ was an article headline in the Radio Times edition of 16 – 22 November 1974. A friend of ours came out with the rank smelling edition of the Radio Times of late 1974, that he discovered stuffed in the chimney breast of his new home. Stuffed in that chimney-breast to obviously keep the cold draughts out, as according to the subtitle the next 1,000 years could be very, very cold, with an advance of the polar ice caps and glaciers. Did we blink or something? We will challenge the BBC to dig out the programme aired in the week of 16 – 22 November 1974 on BBC 2, so that we can be reminded how quickly the agenda and the focus can shift, if we take our eye off the ball and let information asymmetry spin the agenda out of our control.

And we suppose we cannot deny the evidence currently in front of our eyes. Polar ice caps are retreating, which is true if you focus purely on an evidence based approach to trying to understand the wider system. But do make your observations and emotive arguments from within the system, or do you need to step outside that system in order to be more objective. And what about intuition? On a purely intuitive level we believe the earth of GAIA is a self correcting system but we do not have enough evidence to conclusively prove this assertion.

So, in the meantime, we swing one generation to the next, waiting for the ‘Information Assymetrists’ (yes our new made up word de jour) to set the agenda and the morals of the market.

As a soul in this market arena we just keep on being amazed, day in and day out. Please just give us the ability to take the long view…

theMarketSoul ©2009

US Treasuries – 4 trading days on and rates look rosy?

Today’s brief commentary piece tracks the US Treasury Yield curve of 5 August 2011 (before the Standard & Poor’s downgrade announcement) and the closing rate on 10 August 2011.

As can be observed, across the board, the T-Bill yields of 10 August are lower than on 5 August 2011.

 

It begs the question:

Is a ratings agency downgrade actually good for business?

The table below reinforces the point:

At least the volatility we have been observing in the stock markets of late, has not yet manifested itself in the capital markets.  How long can this continue?

theMarketSoul ©2011

US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?

So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor’s finally took the ‘big step’ on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed.

English: Logo for FX
Image via Wikipedia

So what next?

In our article ‘US Treasuries – Are the markets really that bothered?‘ published on 30 July 2011, we argued that the markets were not really bothered, as both 5 & 7 year T-Bill currently delivered a negative Real Return to investors.

Everyone is dreading the opening bells in stock capital and forex market on Monday, yet we believe the fundamental question for this week will be:

Is this an FX or market call?

What we meanby this question is:

Will the markets and market participants see the down grade as an opportunity to play an FX gain game; or has the game fundamentally shifted and will the capital markets react by demanding a higher nominal or at least Real Return on US Treasury bills?

All pointers at the moment did not indicate a problem, but time will tell on whether a fundamental shift in attitude has occurred. Remember a credit rating is only a qualitative indicator, not a quantitative one, so on a technical call a few FX traders and investors might make a profit or two; but we are all waiting to see if the entire game has changed, or not.

Other factors that might come into play soon would be QE3 and attitude hardening  by major T-Bill investors.

How the US Treasury and administration now react will be crucial.

Who are we going to trust to make this big call?

English: A logo of the Standard & Poor's AA- r...
Image via Wikipedia

theMarketSoul © 2011

Pleae refer to our disclaimer page

The Boardroom Incubator – The Idea explained

This discussion is a little bit of background behind the concept of ‘The Boardroom Incubator’.

We currently work mostly around Cambridge, Cambridgeshire, England. The university and some of the colleges in Cambridge have start-up incubation hubs in and around the city. These incubation hubs are spin-offs from ideas and innovation created in the laboratories of the university. Some work and some don’t.

The idea behind ‘The Boardroom Incubator’ came to me after attending an Inspired Group presentation on 14 July 2011. During the session the presenter, Mark Doyle, mentioned some training and development they were doing for women to encourage listed organisations in the UK to redress the imbalance of woman representation on FTSE250 Board of Directors. They were addressing some of the issues, but it struck me that more could be done. This is the basic idea and spark that led me to create group.

Let’s do it now, for ourselves, before the government interferes and legislates quotas and targets into the corporate governance frameworks of UK plc.

theMarketSoul ©2011

Link to the LinkedIn ‘The Boardroom Incubator