Expectations: Mis-sold

We are picking up on a theme we have been experiencing and confirmed by this HBR article  published in 2012: Job and Career seeker’s unfulfilled EXPECTATIONS   The word expectation has several meanings, amongst them words like hope, belief, prospect and even probability.  It is interesting that if you were to consider these four other … Continue reading Expectations: Mis-sold

Thoughts on 2014 – Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 1

Reflections on 2014 As a behaviourally focused economics publication we have been very quiet and inactive during 2014. A year of reflection and introspection, however, we are ready to resume service, with vigour. And what better way to start than with a reflective piece and thoughts on the biggest risk we believe are developing under … Continue reading Thoughts on 2014 – Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 1

Technical Default Options – US Government Shutdown Analysis (Part2)

The real challenge and issue: The US Debt default that is looming ever larger with each passing day that the US Congress, Senate and White House seem to treat as a brinkmanship fatigue challenge will have a specific default structure or process attached to it, that the rest of the world needs to get to … Continue reading Technical Default Options – US Government Shutdown Analysis (Part2)

US Treasury Yield Curve – The Shutdown Analysis (Part 1)

Today we very briefly focus on the dynamics we have observed in the US Treasury Yield Curve between two critical dates: 1. The Yield Curve at 30 September 2013 - The day before the US government shutdown officially began 2. Friday 11 October 2013, exactly 11 days into the White House, Congress and Senate stand-off … Continue reading US Treasury Yield Curve – The Shutdown Analysis (Part 1)

The Kuznets swing and the market for labour and skills

The changing way labour and skills markets operate and are being disrupted by on-line exchanges and cloud computing 'enablement' technologies

An orderly leap into Chaos?

It is a timing thing When the Euro zone Debt driven financial crises - yes, it has been dragging on for a little while now; lurching from one convulsion to the next tremor - is headline news across most traditional newspapers in Britain, it is worth pausing briefly to consider the overall 'management efforts' of … Continue reading An orderly leap into Chaos?

Some Questions for Europe

After the conclusion to what some pundits called a ‘tumultuous week’ for Europe (week ending 11 May 2012), we still find ourselves asking some important questions. We all know that the question is not around what growth, where growth or why growth.  The fundamental question in Europe now is: How Growth? For way too long … Continue reading Some Questions for Europe

The Return of Risk?

We take a brief look at two interesting Treasury Yield curves today. The first Yield Curve takes a snapshot view of the yield curves at the end of Q1 2011 and Q1 2012. What is very noticeable is the fact that the overall yields for the end of Q1 2012 is significantly lower than a … Continue reading The Return of Risk?

Panic in the Cars of Britain?

With apologies to The Smiths; the original version of the song Panic’s lyrics reads something like this: “Panic on the streets of London / Panic on the streets of Birmingham / I wonder to myself / Could life ever be sane again?” Or is this the beginning of what we will call ‘Austerity Anarchy’? As … Continue reading Panic in the Cars of Britain?

A Disconnected World – The Information Age Irony

As economic beings we are extremely ‘short-sighted’ by nature. We don’t fully appreciate the differences and interactions between the short-, medium- and long-term. It was Burns & Mitchell (1946) who tried to measure the economic cycles. Today there are four broad classifications of business cycles as follows: Kitchin cycle (3 – 5 years) – The … Continue reading A Disconnected World – The Information Age Irony

The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

In yesterday’s article, “Where will all the new money come from?” we concluded the brief analysis with the Sovereign Debt Maturity profiles (otherwise known as the Debt Structure) of both the USA and Italy, noting how similar the two profiles looked at first glance. Digging a bit deeper today, we would like to compare those … Continue reading The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

Where will all the new money come from?

Today’s brief analysis of US Treasury Yield curves and the Debt profiles of both the USA and Italy highlights the enduring question in the title of this post. The first graphic highlights one important issue.  We chose 2 August 2011 versus 17 February 2012 as key dates to compare the US Treasury Yield curve.  If … Continue reading Where will all the new money come from?

A new Commercial Reality under Austerity

How to compete fairly and openly.  [Part of our ‘The Trouble with Innovation series 1,2,3,4,5 – Part 6]Doing business anywhere, anytime is never easy! That is a stark commercial reality, that most business people will accept as a given.  But how? now? does is work in a climate of AUSTERITY??? (Apologies for the blatant confusion and … Continue reading A new Commercial Reality under Austerity

A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Are the European and more specifically the Euro-zone problems purely a matter of cultural differences, engrained in generations of ‘Nation Staters’ or something deeper in each nation-people’s psychology?   It cannot purely be a difference of political ideology between the leaders and individual nations of Europe that has lead us to the brink of the … Continue reading A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Irony and Downgrade Anger

It is with a little amusement that we scanned through the Economic headlines today, following Standard & Poor’s decision to finally downgrade France’s and other Eurozone nation’s Sovereign Debt rating.  France lost its prestigious triple A (AAA) grade to AA+. Sarkozy and French anger?  Indeed! Off course the irony is that an “outsider market agency” … Continue reading Irony and Downgrade Anger

More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

We pick up from the introductory article by expanding on the issue of MORE Europe, which we did not cover in enough depth. More Europe It is without a shadow of doubt that belonging to an enlarged common market has huge beneficial advantages to all its participants. However, the question of the Cost / Benefit … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

More and Bigger Europe…Is that what we really want?

Yes, it will be more bureaucracy and bigger financial problems down the line... We pick up our analysis this week in the dusky glint of the aftermath of the (latest) EU Leader summit to put together a rescue package for the Euro. More bureaucracy? The inspiration for this comes for the ‘people pulling the wagon … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe…Is that what we really want?

…and here is some good news…

  Adding further value to our conversation on The Market eQuation we introduce the concept of the: RISKed RETURN on MARKET (RdROM) today on 11.11.11. RISKed RETURN on MARKET adds a counter balance to the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Market Theory, Black Scholes and CAPM, amongst others. More detail to follow in due course... theMarketSoul ©2011