The Return of Risk?

We take a brief look at two interesting Treasury Yield curves today. The first Yield Curve takes a snapshot view of the yield curves at the end of Q1 2011 and Q1 2012. What is very noticeable is the fact that the overall yields for the end of Q1 2012 is significantly lower than a … Continue reading The Return of Risk?

The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

In yesterday’s article, “Where will all the new money come from?” we concluded the brief analysis with the Sovereign Debt Maturity profiles (otherwise known as the Debt Structure) of both the USA and Italy, noting how similar the two profiles looked at first glance. Digging a bit deeper today, we would like to compare those … Continue reading The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Are the European and more specifically the Euro-zone problems purely a matter of cultural differences, engrained in generations of ‘Nation Staters’ or something deeper in each nation-people’s psychology?   It cannot purely be a difference of political ideology between the leaders and individual nations of Europe that has lead us to the brink of the … Continue reading A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Irony and Downgrade Anger

It is with a little amusement that we scanned through the Economic headlines today, following Standard & Poor’s decision to finally downgrade France’s and other Eurozone nation’s Sovereign Debt rating.  France lost its prestigious triple A (AAA) grade to AA+. Sarkozy and French anger?  Indeed! Off course the irony is that an “outsider market agency” … Continue reading Irony and Downgrade Anger

More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

We pick up from the introductory article by expanding on the issue of MORE Europe, which we did not cover in enough depth. More Europe It is without a shadow of doubt that belonging to an enlarged common market has huge beneficial advantages to all its participants. However, the question of the Cost / Benefit … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

More and Bigger Europe…Is that what we really want?

Yes, it will be more bureaucracy and bigger financial problems down the line... We pick up our analysis this week in the dusky glint of the aftermath of the (latest) EU Leader summit to put together a rescue package for the Euro. More bureaucracy? The inspiration for this comes for the ‘people pulling the wagon … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe…Is that what we really want?

The Big Design: Moral Hazard, and the EU

Irrespective of how the twists and turns of the Greek political system plays out over the next few days and weeks, we believe that the Big EU (Eurozone more specifically) players and their leaders only have themselves to blame for Greece's seemingly petulant behaviour. If at the fundamental level we cannot understand that ANY form … Continue reading The Big Design: Moral Hazard, and the EU

Do we value everything and understand nothing?

On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?

Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…

Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…

Recapitalising Europe

Forget about recapitalising the French Banks, saving Greece, (or the Euro)…. Continuing our conversation on Innovation Yes, we admit it! The headline statement above is all about grabbing your attention.  We are not advocating any disorderly default crises. What we believe is that the ‘agricultural’ economic base and the semi-integration of Europe, via market and monetary … Continue reading Recapitalising Europe

I blame John Maynard Keynes (JMK)

Ever since the Great Depression and JMK’s ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)', have we had more intense government interference and hence taxation in most advanced economies.  Thank you JMK. But seriously, how much is too much?  There must be value in controlling fiscal policy, monetary policy and (social) employment policy, but is … Continue reading I blame John Maynard Keynes (JMK)