The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

In yesterday’s article, “Where will all the new money come from?” we concluded the brief analysis with the Sovereign Debt Maturity profiles (otherwise known as the Debt Structure) of both the USA and Italy, noting how similar the two profiles looked at first glance. Digging a bit deeper today, we would like to compare those … Continue reading The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

The Credit Quake of 2008 – 2009 (Revisited)

We were reminded today of a blog post we made on 21 October 2009 we made regarding the Credit Crisis of 2008 - 2009, at the time. Some of the lessons learnt and discussed there are still relevant today, especially our comment regarding the fact that the Credit Quake would have 'after shocks' for a … Continue reading The Credit Quake of 2008 – 2009 (Revisited)

A cynical swipe at the ‘Consumer end’ of the money (value) chain

Today’s short opinion piece revolves around the recent rail fare increases announced in the UK. It strikes us as a very cynical way of rewarding behaviour and policies implemented by previous governments and parliaments to now go and increase the ‘tax’ on rail commuters when the switching policy from road to rail has meant that … Continue reading A cynical swipe at the ‘Consumer end’ of the money (value) chain

US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?

So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?

A sigh of relief?

Some say that in life timing is everything... And so too it is with economics.  We don’t yet have a fully developed and ‘mature’ [in terms of life-cycle] grasp of the impact of timing with leads and lags in the economy in general. Yes, we have very sophisticated and advance models, analytics, knowledge management, quantitative … Continue reading A sigh of relief?

The US Treasury Yield Curves #2 – Do you factor inflation into the deal?

In the previous article we posted, mention was made of the (0.72)% [negative 0.72%] real return US Treasury investors can currently expect on 5 Year Treasury Bills.  The Nominal (quoted) Yield Curves and Real (Inflation adjusted) Yield Curves for two specific points in time, namely Friday 29 July 2011 and 30 July 2006 are listed below. Yield … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves #2 – Do you factor inflation into the deal?

The US Treasury Yield Curves – Are the markets really that bothered?

  As a general introduction today we will look at two US Treasury Yield curves.  The first Yield curve in the Curve graphic 1 below is the 3 Month bills compared to the 10 Year bills over the last 5 years. Yield Curve 1 In this table it is clear that the current 10 Year … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves – Are the markets really that bothered?

Hold your nerve!

It is a confidence thing. We are so very, very close to seeing and experiencing another colossal collapse in confidence in the world’s financial system. This time it is driven by the ‘US Debt Ceiling impasse’.  A steady flight to gold has been taking place over the past few months and even though most informed … Continue reading Hold your nerve!

Risk-Based Change Management

Introduction Cost cutting has been a priority in the private sector, ever since the financial credit quake started in 2008, yet the words currently are ‘austerity measures’ and budget cuts in the public sector. Most of the cost cutting in organisations has been along the tactical and operational lines and we believe that in the … Continue reading Risk-Based Change Management

End to End or Integrated systems and thinking processes

Silos. We hear this management buzz word quite often touted in office settings, and conferences in the media, etc. We argue today that silos are cultural norms.  They are national cultural models possibly endemic of certain national cultures.  We certainly have no empirical evidence for this, so this is pure opinion and conjecture on the … Continue reading End to End or Integrated systems and thinking processes