Reflections on 2014 As a behaviourally focused economics publication we have been very quiet and inactive during 2014. A year of reflection and introspection, however, we are ready to resume service, with vigour. And what better way to start than with a reflective piece and thoughts on the biggest risk we believe are developing under … Continue reading Thoughts on 2014 – Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 1
We have been following the G20 'get those naughty multinationals in the tax tent' debates raging for a few months now, with amusement we have to add; here at theMarketSoul and have the following short thought piece to contribute to the debate. We know the 'outrage' really is all about the what the OECD calls … Continue reading An Ownership Revolution is required
Thoughts on over regulation and disincentives
US Treasury Yield Curves - Mid July 2013 Analysis
Do we understand the Kuznets swing?
On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?
Making sense of the distribution and lag effects Let us explain the problem or rather challenge of choosing between Quantitative Easing (QE) and an Interest Rate reduction to stimulate economic activity, with reference to the Bell Curve diagramme above: There are two major factors at play here: Distribution Time With a bout of QE, the effect … Continue reading QE – Our take on the Bell Curve effect
Today’s brief commentary piece tracks the US Treasury Yield curve of 5 August 2011 (before the Standard & Poor’s downgrade announcement) and the closing rate on 10 August 2011. As can be observed, across the board, the T-Bill yields of 10 August are lower than on 5 August 2011. It begs the question: Is a ratings … Continue reading US Treasuries – 4 trading days on and rates look rosy?
So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed. So what next? In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, … Continue reading US Treasuries – An FX or a market call?
In the previous article we posted, mention was made of the (0.72)% [negative 0.72%] real return US Treasury investors can currently expect on 5 Year Treasury Bills. The Nominal (quoted) Yield Curves and Real (Inflation adjusted) Yield Curves for two specific points in time, namely Friday 29 July 2011 and 30 July 2006 are listed below. Yield … Continue reading The US Treasury Yield Curves #2 – Do you factor inflation into the deal?
[Economics in a Nutshell] An Introduction There is a conundrum here somewhere! As a libertarian leaning Think Tank organization and publication, we instinctively know that more government interference in the economy and bigger government per se is not a good thing. And so is sovereign debt and the servicing of that debt. Both are … Continue reading The Elusive “G” Factor – Part 1
A few weeks ago we published what seems like our most popular blog article to date, namely Increased Friction Costs. As it has been our most read article, we thought we might continue to build on the theme of Economic Friction Cost. Williamson (1993) published some work on Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) in a book … Continue reading Continuing conversations in Friction Costs: Increased Friction Costs II
There has again been a short period of drift and volatility in 'The Markets' recently. And yet again we have heard the old refrain: "Markets hate uncertainty". This we assert is yet again a misused turn of phrase. It is not uncertainty that markets hate, because inherent within market processes and market operations is the … Continue reading The Markets do not need certainty
We will interrupt our series of articles on ‘The Trouble with Innovation’ and begin to weave in between those conversations, a more fundamental argument to help enlighten the debate and understanding around the differences between ‘Monetary Economics’ and ‘Real Economics’. The basic themes of this series of articles will be around growth and shrinking in … Continue reading The Great Money Deception – Part I