An orderly leap into Chaos?

It is a timing thing When the Euro zone Debt driven financial crises - yes, it has been dragging on for a little while now; lurching from one convulsion to the next tremor - is headline news across most traditional newspapers in Britain, it is worth pausing briefly to consider the overall 'management efforts' of … Continue reading An orderly leap into Chaos?

Some Questions for Europe

After the conclusion to what some pundits called a ‘tumultuous week’ for Europe (week ending 11 May 2012), we still find ourselves asking some important questions. We all know that the question is not around what growth, where growth or why growth.  The fundamental question in Europe now is: How Growth? For way too long … Continue reading Some Questions for Europe

The Return of Risk?

We take a brief look at two interesting Treasury Yield curves today. The first Yield Curve takes a snapshot view of the yield curves at the end of Q1 2011 and Q1 2012. What is very noticeable is the fact that the overall yields for the end of Q1 2012 is significantly lower than a … Continue reading The Return of Risk?

A Disconnected World – The Information Age Irony

As economic beings we are extremely ‘short-sighted’ by nature. We don’t fully appreciate the differences and interactions between the short-, medium- and long-term. It was Burns & Mitchell (1946) who tried to measure the economic cycles. Today there are four broad classifications of business cycles as follows: Kitchin cycle (3 – 5 years) – The … Continue reading A Disconnected World – The Information Age Irony

The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

In yesterday’s article, “Where will all the new money come from?” we concluded the brief analysis with the Sovereign Debt Maturity profiles (otherwise known as the Debt Structure) of both the USA and Italy, noting how similar the two profiles looked at first glance. Digging a bit deeper today, we would like to compare those … Continue reading The BIG Sovereign Debt Structure cliff – Part 1

Where will all the new money come from?

Today’s brief analysis of US Treasury Yield curves and the Debt profiles of both the USA and Italy highlights the enduring question in the title of this post. The first graphic highlights one important issue.  We chose 2 August 2011 versus 17 February 2012 as key dates to compare the US Treasury Yield curve.  If … Continue reading Where will all the new money come from?

A new Commercial Reality under Austerity

How to compete fairly and openly.  [Part of our ‘The Trouble with Innovation series 1,2,3,4,5 – Part 6]Doing business anywhere, anytime is never easy! That is a stark commercial reality, that most business people will accept as a given.  But how? now? does is work in a climate of AUSTERITY??? (Apologies for the blatant confusion and … Continue reading A new Commercial Reality under Austerity

A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Are the European and more specifically the Euro-zone problems purely a matter of cultural differences, engrained in generations of ‘Nation Staters’ or something deeper in each nation-people’s psychology?   It cannot purely be a difference of political ideology between the leaders and individual nations of Europe that has lead us to the brink of the … Continue reading A matter of CULTURE or PSYCHOLOGY in Europe?

Irony and Downgrade Anger

It is with a little amusement that we scanned through the Economic headlines today, following Standard & Poor’s decision to finally downgrade France’s and other Eurozone nation’s Sovereign Debt rating.  France lost its prestigious triple A (AAA) grade to AA+. Sarkozy and French anger?  Indeed! Off course the irony is that an “outsider market agency” … Continue reading Irony and Downgrade Anger

Our Lessons from 2011

  We decided to summarise our learning from 2011 into two brief thoughts:   The pains and strains of the economic sovereign debt melt-down in 2011, should stand us in good stead to deal with even more debt and sovereign strain in 2012, as More and Bigger Europe continue to miss the point; this being … Continue reading Our Lessons from 2011

Core Values

As we wind down 2011 we have entered the ‘reflective season’, where due to the structure of the Gregorian calendar and the very long(est) night of the year (in the Northern Hemisphere), we naturally enter a more introspective mood. Therefore, as we become more contemplative during this time, let’s reflect on our Core Values, both … Continue reading Core Values

More and Confused Europe? – Part 3 – It is Uncertain…

Continuing the conversation and analysis on the ‘fall-out’ of the British Veto being exercised at the most recent EU Leaders (crisis) summit, it is interesting to observe two specific angles to this: Innovation Our article on ‘Recapitalising Europe’ kicked off the discussion around Innovation. It appears that the leaders of Europe (a summary of Angela … Continue reading More and Confused Europe? – Part 3 – It is Uncertain…

More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

We pick up from the introductory article by expanding on the issue of MORE Europe, which we did not cover in enough depth. More Europe It is without a shadow of doubt that belonging to an enlarged common market has huge beneficial advantages to all its participants. However, the question of the Cost / Benefit … Continue reading More and Bigger Europe –Part 2 – It is MORE…

…and here is some good news…

  Adding further value to our conversation on The Market eQuation we introduce the concept of the: RISKed RETURN on MARKET (RdROM) today on 11.11.11. RISKed RETURN on MARKET adds a counter balance to the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Market Theory, Black Scholes and CAPM, amongst others. More detail to follow in due course... theMarketSoul ©2011

The Big Design: Moral Hazard, and the EU

Irrespective of how the twists and turns of the Greek political system plays out over the next few days and weeks, we believe that the Big EU (Eurozone more specifically) players and their leaders only have themselves to blame for Greece's seemingly petulant behaviour. If at the fundamental level we cannot understand that ANY form … Continue reading The Big Design: Moral Hazard, and the EU

Synthesizers wanted…to cross the crises divide…

Today we are reposting a blog article originally posted in April 2010. We believe the sentiments are still valid and should resonate across the various crises we are experiencing currently. Please click on the link below: https://themarketsoul.com/2010/04/25/221/ theMarketSoul © 2011 Related articles Synthesizers wanted...to cross the crises divide... (themarketsoul.com) How industries react to crises (scripting.com)

Do we value everything and understand nothing?

On reflection, the ‘mechanism’ established to rescue or save the Euro is indicative of the fact that we still understand very little and can control and short-circuit systems to some extent, yet we think we value everything. Inflation, and dare we state it openly, serious inflation of double-digit proportions must now surely be back on … Continue reading Do we value everything and understand nothing?

Peak Debt – What Peak Debt?

Peak Debt is in essence the point at which a sovereign nation reaches its maximum indebtedness and cannot afford to service the debt anymore, thus prompting a reduction in the debt (principal). So, Europe proved yesterday with the uplift of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) from its current base of €440bn to €1tr (boosting … Continue reading Peak Debt – What Peak Debt?

Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…

Today (26 October 2011) is an important watershed date (or not) for Europe. Will our leaders and the politicians be able to agree an all encompassing Framework to rescue the Euro, or will we need to think about a more modular approach for the future? We believe that it might be in the Euro's short-term … Continue reading Frameworks, frameworks, frameworks…