The problem with INTEGRATION

[PART I]

 

Our view on the fundamental problem with integration is that the word does not contain the 4Cs of essential successful outcomes:

  • Communication
  • Change Management effort
  • Control and Coordination
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Effective COMMUNICATION strategies and plans
 
We know the word good or effective communication is banded around quite frequently, however, this brief analysis of the process will hopefully highlight the challenge we see in effectively communication the change effort required in order to lead to a successful Integration project.
  1. Communication is multi-dimensional
  2. Communication is multi-channel
  3. Communication is a two way (one to one) or one to many process
  4. Communication requires time, an action plan and monitoring and control
  5. Communication requires a feedback loop mechanism to measure outcomes
The list above is by no means exhaustive, however, in the next article in this series, we will focus on each element of the communication process in turn.
Change Management effort
 
In the animal kingdom, if you stand still for too long, the chances are that some predator or other will catch and consume you. In organisational life the same principles apply.  Those who accept the Status Quo for too long will become endangered and their organisations will suffer.  So, with change so endemic in organisational life, why are we still so bad at managing overall Change Management effort and process?
Even when we put Change Management front and centre in the INTEGRATION process; why does it still depend on a coin toss as to the likelihood of a successful outcome?
We believe that part of the answer lies in a fundamental misalignment and misunderstanding of ‘COMPETING PRIORITIES‘.
priorities
And this comes back to the communication processes and strategies deploy in the first place.
If we do not communicate what and why the urgencies exist and what the critical drivers for and against change are; do we believe we have any hope of a positive outcome?
People in organisations are generally very busy.  They consume, process, create, oversee, manage, do, etc., etc. a lot of information and tasks, constantly shifting priorities in an ocean of decision making and information flows.
If any Change effort and Change Management specialist does not understand and compensate for this factor, is it any wonder that INTEGRATION and Change Management efforts are less than optimal?
Control and Coordination
 
Like any process, control of the process itself and coordination and monitoring of the effort (resources deployed) is an essential part of driving the INTEGRATION agenda forward.
Deming’s Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle is a useful guide in this area of control and coordination.  The two words, however, do not mean the same outcome will be achieved in the end.
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A clear distinction needs to be made between Efficiency and Effectiveness when controlling and coordinating INTEGRATION projects.
We have all heard the ‘busy fools’ analogy and if not, we have to guard against efficiently doing the wrong thing.  Sometimes decision-making is carried out in an environment where information is lacking and if the ‘gut feel’ is not followed in favour of imperfect information, then sub-optimal decisions can be perpetuated by continuing to justify the original decision point.
We are reminded here of a phrase in a stanza from Felix Dennis’ poem, ‘How to Get Rich':
 “Never be late 
to quit or cut bait
 
CutBait-home-page-2014
In our next article on the topic of INTEGRATION management, we will continue the conversation regarding COMMUNICATION and continue to delve down deeper into analysis and commentary on the 4Cs of the Integration effort, namely

Communication

Change Management effort

Control and Coordination 

 ….to be continued in part II
(c)theMarketSoul 2015

Tax and morality? The two should never meet…

caution-taxes-tax-370x229

The language, or rather political language de jour, is for the canvassing potential members of the next parliament (Parliamentary candidates in the UK) to merge two very different concepts into one, in the public’s mind. Those words are tax evasion and tax avoidance. We (at the theMarketSoul) believe we potentially know why, but the consequences might not yet be clearly understood.

Economic principle of creative destruction - joseph schumpeter
My PRECIOUS…!

At a recent televised debate attended by potential next Business Secretary representatives (politicians who would be in charge of the Business, Innovation and Skills [BIS] department) from the three major political parties, one of the candidates challenged the audience thus:

“You (tax advisers) know the difference between aggressive tax avoidance on the the one hand and tax planning on the other.”  No the question was actually this: “Please raise your hand in the audience if you do not know what aggressive tax avoidance is.” From the podium the verdict came that about half the audience raised their hands. And therein lies the problem: Are you making this a moral question now? Because until someone is able to clearly define and explain how morality and tax planning are linked; we at theMarketSoul cannot help but think:  Where next in this one sided ‘supposed’ quasi debate?

It really depends on how you ask the question:

Is taxation moral? Is paying tax moral? What level of taxation is moral? Is being moral, paying your taxes?  If you don’t pay taxes, are you immoral?

Hopefully, you get our drift…?

© theMarketSoul 2015 skelet

Taxes, Tobacco, and the Laffer Curve

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

As the economic credentials of the political parties in the UK 2015 election get scrutinised, it is worth bearing in mind the ‘Laffer Curve’ effects on fiscal policy. Don’t increase our overall taxation burden and tax rates, please…from Dan Mitchell at the Centre for Freedom and Prosperity at the Cato Institute, lessons from the other side of the pond.

Originally posted on International Liberty:

What’s the Laffer Curve?

It’s the simple, common-sense observation that there’s not a linear relationship between tax rates and tax revenue.

Folks in the private sector understand this principle. No restaurant owner, for instance, would double meal prices and assume that revenues would climb by 100 percent.

Yet that’s basically the methodology used by the Joint Committee on Taxation when estimating the revenue impact of changes in tax rates.

Which helps to explain why Washington is so often wrong about revenue implications of personal tax rates and corporate tax rates.

The Laffer Curve also applies to tobacco taxation.

Patrick Gleason of Americans for Tax Reform points out in the Wall Street Journal that greedy politicians in New York have pushed cigarette taxes so high that the main beneficiaries are smugglers.

Rampant cigarette smuggling isn’t the problem in New York. It’s a symptom of the problem: sky high tobacco…

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Wake up Britain. You are a #TAX Haven too!!!

Let’s just pause for a moment: #Tax avoidance talk is all the rage at the moment…

In order to redress the balance of negative sentiment, combined with a political(ly) charged environment with electioneering by all major political UK parties posturing new populist policies (say that fast a few times); we thought it a good idea to put a little perspective on the matter of #Tax avoidance (tax planning we prefer to call it).  Remember this is #Election2015 coming up on 7 May 2015.

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So HSBC bank (more specifically the Swiss subsidiary of their Private Banking arm) got themselves into difficulty over the past couple of weeks with the BBC Panorama programme revelations as reported by Richard Bilton.
Accused of large scale collusion on tax avoidance or even evasion practices, the liberal and politically left leaning media in the UK have quite rightly got themselves embroiled in a multi-layered debate from both tax avoidance and the morals thereof to standards of editorial judgement, when corporate advertisers are the subject of negative headlines (the Daily Telegraph).
However, to grab a headline back for ourselves (and balance the debate):
Britain, wake-up, you are a corporate TAX Haven” and to cap it off, you are not that popular with other higher taxing G8 jurisdictions.
The overall corporation tax environment in the UK has significantly improved if you are considering a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) route into the UK over the life-time of this last Conservative-Liberal Democrat led parliament.
 world-tax-haven
With corporate tax rates for both small and large enterprises almost aligned at 20% and 21% respectively from April 2014 onwards, for net profits assessable to corporation tax, the UK is one of the lowest corporate tax regimes in the G20 club.
What are the implications of this?
More FDI is attracted to the UK and therefore the potential to create more jobs and reduce the dependency on government handouts reduced.
What has not yet happened though, is that the tax receipts from corporations subjected to corporation tax in the UK increased significantly.  This is partly due to timing issues; Capital and Investment allowances reducing the overall tax take and further aggressive tax avoidance activities by these Multi-National Corporations (MNC).
English: Tax rates around the world: VAT rate/...
Tax rates around the world: VAT rate/G&S Tax rate (the highest rate) by countries (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
On the whole the average effective corporation tax rate actually paid in the UK is therefore less than the 21% head line rate for large businesses with profits over £300,000.  This is due to the cash tax rate paid by corporations being reduced by capital allowances and research and development credits bringing down the effective rate paid as a percentage of the net profit assessable to corporation tax to well below 21%.  These legitimate reductions are known as reliefs.
For a fuller and official explanation of the UK corporate tax system and reliefs available, we suggest a quick glimpse at HMRC site at this address:  https://www.gov.uk/corporation-tax-rates/rates
PwC put together a league table of effective (most attractive to least attractive jurisdictions on that is called “international tax competitiveness”.  In 2014 the UK ranked 16th, with only Ireland and Denmark, (two fellow EU member states) beating the UK from the EU member state block.
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We will continue to develop this theme over the next few weeks leading up to the general election in the UK.
theMarketSoul © 2015
Please take our anonymous poll below:
 
PS. To balance our views, please refer to some of these articles for your further reading:

Expectations: Mis-sold

We are picking up on a theme we have been experiencing and confirmed by this HBR article  published in 2012:

Job and Career seeker’s unfulfilled EXPECTATIONS

 

The word expectation has several meanings, amongst them words like hope, belief, prospect and even probability.  It is interesting that if you were to consider these four other words it is almost a continuum, stretching from the vague hope frontier and uncertainty right through to probability which is calculus driven and at least more certain statistically then mere hope…

However, the real focus of our analysis today is the mis-sold or rather mis-aligned expectations gap.

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Factors driving the Expectation Gap in our opinion include:

We will begin to unpick each one of these factors or drivers (reasons why) in a multi-part series of articles to see how, why and if we can help ‘plug the Expectations Gap’.

Today we will begin to briefly cover the top item on our list:

Economic principle of creative destruction - joseph schumpeter

Disruptive Technologies versus Organisational Structure and Strategies

Agile and Adaptive seem to be the new buzzwords in the corporate planning landscape and lexicon.  But how do we change entrenched processes and ways of working to align to an agile and adaptive mindset?

Let us turn to certain inhibitors first.  Processes like preferred supplier lists, supply chain or other framework procurement agreements, Service Level Agreements and other longer-term contractual arrangement all help create the illusion of certainty and stability; yet are they?  Sometimes this flies in the face of agile and adaptive planning and operational processes.

Maybe the gap exists between a process reality and a mindset aspiration.  Flexible organisational structures, including resource pools like labour still have a long way to “move” in order to create the conditions in which agile planning and aligned to adaptive process realities.

How are our own personal aspirations and understanding of the current market aligned to the Shamrock Organisation mindset?

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theMarketSoul ©2015

Cre8ing #Context – A reflection on #Marketing

Reflections on marketing

What is marketing all about? How often do we ponder this question and enter into a circular debate abut the analysis part, the tactical bits, the execution or the philosophy and strategy behind it?

But is this all there is to it?

sadHappy

Once you have created the context and back drop to the ‘what marketing is supposed to do’ element, what is is all about in the end?

We’ll briefly lay out an argument supporting the fact that we believe marketing exists within a context of ‘noise’ all around us and that the skilled artisans of the marketing world are the masters of translation. Translating the disparate voices, messages and content into a language the target audience can understand and make sense of.

Of course this is only a small facet of the entire marketing delivery platform, yet, one facet we must not forget. Whether pull or push is the preferred mechanism of creating the desired effect, the critical item to get right is the physical presence of mind and being in order to ensure the recipient had the correct message ‘translated’ in an understandable, action-oriented and galvanising manner to ensure they get up and do something slightly different from what they did a few moments ago.

The following internal marketing “Think Differently” Apple (Steve Jobs) video we believe sums up or rather expands more eloquently on our thoughts:

The rest, is just plain noise…

theMarketSoul ©2015

The “Harsh” Market

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

In light of the UK #Election2015 and the build up to May 2015; we review a thought piece on actions required during the period following the May 2010 election. How did the government do and are the three hard choices faced then still as pressing in the lead to to May 2015?

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

It is true.  This is not a playground, kinder-garden experience…

As we don’t live a purely Command and Control or 100% Free Market environment we have to constantly adjust our actions and interactions with the market around us based on factors such as:

Geography

Jurisdiction and cultural norms

Experiences

Sophistication levels

Access points

Openness

English: A tag cloud of the 2010 UK Budget Sta...

There are many other factors to add to the list above, but we are referring to the behavioural aspects inherent in any market interaction.

One of the greatest challenges facing the political class in the UK at the moment is the Truth or Dare conundrum.

We are specifically referring to the urgent need to cut public sector spending, yet the painful reality that it is:

a)      Very difficult and not politically expedient to admit the ‘Truth as seen by any politician’ (see the ‘Forces of Hell’reference uttered by Alistair Darling on trying to speak…

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Sustainability I

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

An opinion piece we published in 2010 on Sustainability we believe to be as relevant as ever today…

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

The focus on sustainability and sustainable practices is a self defeating objective.  Sustainability means that business leaders take their eye off the equity holder’s value creation ideal, as it flies in the face of self-interest as promoted by Adam Smith some 234 years ago (The Wealth of Nations , 1776).

Profile of Adam Smith

Self-interest and the pursuit therefore is being clouded by a multitude of other non value adding factors that is diluting the message and contributing to more uncertainty and risk and therefore capital flight and volatility in the financial and capital markets as we have experienced over the last 2 years.

This process and Zeitgeist will not disappear or be properly understood, unless we develop a deeper understanding and familiarity with uncertainty as a driver of the innovative spirit of human endeavour.

Risk management per se is not the answer and panacea it is held out to be, and if…

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Capricious Markets

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Some thoughts on #Markets and #Risk from our archive (2010). Still relevant today?

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

The market is capricious.  We are paraphrasing a line from one of Bernard Cornwell’s series of historic novels on 9th century England, where he referred to the ‘old gods’ (pagan gods) of the Danes and Vikings as capricious.

So if the impulsive nature of markets is to be appreciated for what they are, then why are we trying so hard to manage risk completely out of existence?

We will focus on two specific factors today in what we refer to as the ‘dumbing down of risk’.

A strict or narrow definition (old financial language) of risk is possibly that it is a quantifiable number with a probability ranking and we can therefore attach a statistical inference to the occurrence of the risk event.

Yet in The Health & Safety Executives language a risk and “Risk management involves you, the employer, looking at the risks that arise in the…

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Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 2

Part 2 – Revelations
 Moral Hazard symbol utilized by theMarketSoul
In part 1 of this article we focused on the economic cycles and the underlying drivers for future Moral Hazard risks.
In today’s edition we will dwell a little on the revelations 2014 brought about in a series of disclosures and financial regulatory deals concluded.  As Tony Robinson put is so eloquently in a recent Twitter feed:  “In 2014 £1.4bn in financial penalties were paid by UK financial institutions. whenever has a legitimate industry acted so lawlessly?

 

Image used to convey the idea of currency conv...
Image credit: Wikipedia

 

What we notice is that only the financial institutions (and consequently their customers) bore the fines, no individual has yet been brought to justice and account for the near fatal financial collapse he 2008/9 Financial Crunch brought about.  Yes, individual traders who acted recklessly and outside of the bounds of their remits within financial organisations have been brought to account, however, the scale and ferocity of the collusion by Forex traders, the Libor scandal, PPI mis-selling, etc., etc., has yet to yield individuals sanctioned and barred for ever acting as officers and employees of these large financial institutions.  Do the regulators and law enforcers and criminal justice system believe that the market will be protected by not taking appropriate action?  The longer we leave punishment and sanctions off the agenda, the more urgent the growing threat for Moral Hazard PLUS will be.
Therefore, we have now had and will no doubt continue to have revelations drip fed to the consumer masses, but more importantly will we take the necessary steps to mitigate individual Moral Hazard risk, as a lot has already been done to tighten and improve regulation at the institutional level?
This is the biggest and most burning question we believe drives Moral Hazard PLUS today and not the near term future.
In the concluding part of this article we will wrap things up by concentrating on large scale corruption and unpunished collusion that fester and provide fertile soil for Moral Hazard PLUS to continue to grow and exist.
© theMarketSoul 2015

Thoughts on 2014 – Moral Hazard PLUS – Part 1

Reflections on 2014

As a behaviourally focused economics publication we have been very quiet and inactive during 2014. A year of reflection and introspection, however, we are ready to resume service, with vigour. And what better way to start than with a reflective piece and thoughts on the biggest risk we believe are developing under the surface without warning. Our concluding theme of 2014 is that of moral hazard.

As Margaret Thatcher once said: “There is no society”; we state today that there is ‘No Moral Hazard'; in fact there is only Moral Hazard PLUS.

We believe that there is a strong correlation between QE (Quantitative Easing) and economic moral hazard developing a new strain, mutating like an unseen virus.

QE might have saved the financial system of the developed world, but it it only provided a shot in the arm and acted as a stimulus for sustaining moral hazard.

Economics follow a flow and cyclical pattern, as discussed in our article entitled ‘Information Age Irony‘. These patterns and flows weave themselves into the fabric of our lives and affect individual economies in different ways.

It is important to understand where and how economic cycles develop and flow and how much influence they have on our general economic activities on a day to day basis, but we should not become overly obsessed by them, as they can be short-circuited from time to time by policy and policy-maker’s actions, wherever individually or collectively.

In part 2 of this article we will focus on the revelations of QE and the underlying threat of moral hazard returning on a grander and more catastrophic scale, if it goes unchecked and misunderstood.

© theMarketSoul 2014

Immediacy – Analysing the Behavioural Dimensions

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Revisiting some posts from 2013…

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

The problem of getting too distracted by constantly fire-fighting in business settings

Français : Logo de Connecting Emotional Intell...

We might have heard it referred to as phrases such as “blinkered vision, short-term thinking”, possibly even “tunnel vision” or something similar; however the challenges of Immediacy is (1) the hidden cost and (2) damage it does to our organisations and culture within those organisations.

This is a behavioural consequence of a much more deep rooted problem.  It could possibly be insecurity or ‘over’ control, mistrust or some other behavioural issue.

However, we would like to make a bold statement that the problem is one of an over commented emotional connection to what we do. Too much passion and care in other words. This is not a bad thing in itself, but it must be tempered and balanced by its opposite twin, namely logic and deliberation.

Too often we let the Emotional Intelligence (EI) side of our…

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The Market Burden

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Thoughts on regulation and a skewed market:

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Illustrates the intersection of supply and dem... Illustrates the intersection of supply and demand curves as the free market equilibrium (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Today’s post is actually only a short sound bite for further conversations to be developed in the future:

The real burden of the open and free market is the fact that it does not always behave and act in the way the market participants anticipated. [In other words, the market might be open and free but not perceived as fair – a real challenge when the clearance mechanism experiences the odd bottleneck moment, because in the long run, the market should and will always clear and achieve equilibrium].
The burden the market then bears is in the form of interference and regulation…
Counter argument always very welcome.
theMarketSoul  ©2013

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Funky New Job Titles

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

A reminder to be creative everyday…

Originally posted on theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Below is an extract from a posting we made back in 2008.  Maybe still relevant today:

In this new, new world of work

What titles are there yet to lurk?

The new MD

He or she or it could be:

Maverick Director;

Not your average reflector!

The IM is the person

Where intuition is the key

Or are they the Ideas Merchants

or just another fee?

IT stands for Interesting Thing

Technology drives the process

And we are told that knowledge

Must definitely be better than porridge!

The SD drives the sales

Or Sets Deception

Yet revenue collection

their fortunate projection

The HR director,

You’d better respect ‘er

Yet Human Potential

Sounds much more consequential?

Or politically correct,

You OLD cynical fool!

Now even that word

We must reject!

Where am I heading?

With this you ask

Must there be an end?

Or just another bend?

Charisma, inspiration

Or just…

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Do you think it should be compulsory to pay into a pension?

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

Some thought provoking issues raised as part of the ‘long-term savings gap’ challenge, perceived by think tanks and government advisors…

Originally posted on Steve J Bicknell:

Pension Scheme

A government think thank, Policy Exchange, have urged the government to make it compulsory that people save for their retirement. Their proposal the ‘Help to Save’ Scheme is aimed at avoiding 11 million people ending up in ‘Pension Poverty’. In a BBC article….

James Barty, author of the report, said the lack of people saving for their retirement was putting an “intolerable burden on the state” which “needs to be addressed sooner rather than later”.

He said: “With an ageing population, putting money aside for later life should be seen in the same context as National Insurance contributions, taxes and even education – an obligation that falls on everyone in society.

“‘Help to Save’ will prevent the state from having to pick up the tab for people who haven’t put aside enough money for later life.”

Under the plans, the opt-out in the Government’s auto-enrolment scheme would be removed…

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The Bread-ish Difference Between Capitalism and Socialism

theMarketSoul ©1999 - 2015:

…keeping economic concepts simple or just plain being conceptually simple…

Dan Mitchell has a knack in this re-blogged post to get the concept of socialism versus capitalism across very succinctly.

Originally posted on International Liberty:

If you ask an economist about the difference between capitalism and socialism, you’ll probably get a boring answer about the size of government, the impact on incentives, and the power of the state.

Or maybe you’ll get a nit-picking answer, sort of like when I explained that Obama technically isn’t a socialist.

That’s why it’s sometimes best to use simple, common-sense analogies.

Two years ago, I used two cows to explain the differences between various economic systems.

But this image may be an ever more succinct way to showing the difference between capitalism and socialism.

Socialism capitalism bread

Or, if you prefer stories, this updated version of the fable of the ant and the grasshopper makes the same point.

And here’s the PC version of the Little Red Hen.

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If only we could…

…[take] the human being out of the market entirely, then we should have a proper, effective and efficient market…?
So might go the refrain of Neo-liberal economics, or at least a slightly different take on the Neo-liberal ideal of ‘every interaction should be a market transaction‘.

inspiration

That Neo-liberal economic refrain is part of the inspiration behind the creation of the ‘Soul of the Market’ or rather theMarketSoul and this site.
With this last post of 2013, we thought a bit of reflection and a reminder of our inspiration and founding philosophy might be in order.
In order for a market to be effective, there has to be a few ripples in the ebbs and flows of the transactions and interactions making up the market processes.  Therefore, we have to be able to tolerate human frailties and flaws, or else the market becomes too mechanistic and dare we say it preordained.  This can naturally not be an effective outcome for any market.  Human failings and market failure are two sides of the same coin.  However, we should work together in order to limit the inevitable damage and negative consequences of both human and market failure.  This does not necessarily translate into more regulation, might we add at this juncture.
Let us never forget this and celebrate process frailty, failure, learn to develop and embrace tolerance, persistence and perseverance; basic elements of human nature
We should never forget our inspiration, put it to aspiration and strive to achieve our own unique and specific dreams.
Human Nature / Logo
Human Nature / Logo (Photo credit: Ars Electronica)
Go, Inspire, Aspire and Achieve…
theMarketSoul ©2013
Our final word of 2013 is:

CONSOLIDATION

Technical Default Options – US Government Shutdown Analysis (Part2)

Seal of the United States Department of the Tr...
Seal of the United States Department of the Treasury (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The real challenge and issue:

The US Debt default that is looming ever larger with each passing day that the US Congress, Senate and White House seem to treat as a brinkmanship fatigue challenge will have a specific default structure or process attached to it, that the rest of the world needs to get to grips with very quickly.

Breakdown of political party representation in...
Breakdown of political party representation in the United States Senate during the 112th Congress. Blue: Democrat Red: Republican Light Blue: Independent (caucused with Democrats) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

What are the consequences:

Because, if Americans are willing to engage in quasi-negotiations with each other on this acrimonious level; then world beware, they will treat you with even more disdain and petulance than they have been treating each other.

And yet, no Creditor Nation of the USA seem in the least bit prepared for the hard bargaining the USA Treasury officials will engage in when the technical default moves into a more serious phase.

This is commercial war on a scale we have not experienced for quite some time.

And the most disparaging part of this process or potential risk is that no commentator has yet stood up and called time on this challenge or at the very least attempted to pull the veil from the threat and fall-out the rest of the world will experience.

The western front of the United States Capitol...
The western front of the United States Capitol. The Capitol serves as the seat of government for the United States Congress, the legislative branch of the U.S. federal government. It is located in Washington, D.C., on top of Capitol Hill at the east end of the National Mall. The building is marked by its central dome above a rotunda and two wings. It is an exemplar of the Neoclassical architecture style. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

What next?

Of course 17 October 2013 is a technical default breach days only; because as most business people who experienced bankruptcy will attest to is the fact that you can continue to trade (on the goodwill of your creditors) beyond the point of being solvent, so long as those creditors continue to good-naturedly extend some further credit or payment terms to you.

theMarketSoul ©2013

 

US Treasury Yield Curve – The Shutdown Analysis (Part 1)

Seal of the United States Department of the Tr...
Seal of the United States Department of the Treasury (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Today we very briefly focus on the dynamics we have observed in the US Treasury Yield Curve between two critical dates:

1. The Yield Curve at 30 September 2013 – The day before the US government shutdown officially began

2. Friday 11 October 2013, exactly 11 days into the White House, Congress and Senate stand-off

YC shutdown AnalysisWhat can clearly be observed from the Yield Curve for Treasury Bills (T-Bills) dated 30 days is that the spread between 30 September 2013 (at 0.10%) to the rate at 11 October 2013 (0.26%) has significantly increased and that the Yield Curve has become inverted.  Normally the sign of a recession or other financial calamity to come.

Our question:

Will Thursday 17 October 2013 be D-Day (for Disaster or Domino-day) when the whole lot starts tumbling down again?

Immediacy – Analysing the Behavioural Dimensions

The problem of getting too distracted by constantly fire-fighting in business settings

Français : Logo de Connecting Emotional Intell...

We might have heard it referred to as phrases such as “blinkered vision, short-term thinking”, possibly even “tunnel vision” or something similar; however the challenges of Immediacy is (1) the hidden cost and (2) damage it does to our organisations and culture within those organisations.

This is a behavioural consequence of a much more deep rooted problem.  It could possibly be insecurity or ‘over’ control, mistrust or some other behavioural issue.

However, we would like to make a bold statement that the problem is one of an over commented emotional connection to what we do. Too much passion and care in other words. This is not a bad thing in itself, but it must be tempered and balanced by its opposite twin, namely logic and deliberation.

Too often we let the Emotional Intelligence (EI) side of our personalities or just pure emotions (if we lack in the finesses of EI) rule the roost and we park logic and Business Intelligence (BI) at our peril.

What to do, in order to balance the equation:

When faced with the typical flight or flight scenario of a mini crisis at work or during a project;, stop or pause for a little while in order to achieve two very important objectives:

  1. Calm down the emotional roller coaster.
  2. Take stock in order to appraise and assess what would be the most logical course of action to take next.
English: Book Cover
English: Book Cover (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As an experiment in BI versus EI today and over the course of this week, just think and apply these two simple steps and monitor and evaluate the outcomes and consequences.

You might be pleasantly surprised…

Feedback most welcome.

theMarketSoul © 2013 

Shaping and innovating economic thinking about markets of the future, one behavioural step at a time…Making Sense of Scarcity, Choice and Outcomes

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